While Mayawati has ruled out a tie-up, Congress wants it to unite Dalit vote, consolidate Muslim support. But SP fears a dilution of its preeminent status in a broader alliance.
The confusion over whether the BSP will be part of the INDIA bloc continues, with the Congress reportedly keen on it but the Samajwadi Party (SP) stalling the same. The BSP, on its part, continues to deny that any such alliance is in the cards.
Last month, at a meeting of the INDIA bloc, the SP came out and asked the Congress to decide if it wanted to tie up with it or the BSP for the Lok Sabha elections. BSP president Mayawati shot back, saying INDIA members should not talk about parties that are not its allies.
“It can’t be predicted who will need whom in the future. In such a scenario, these people may be left embarrassed at a later stage. The SP is a living example,” Mayawati said, in an apparent reference to her 2019 Lok Sabha poll alliance with the SP, which would have been once considered impossible due to their terse relations.
BSP national coordinator and Mayawati’s nephew Akash Anand also took a swipe at the SP in a post on X, saying that in the INDIA alliance, “some people are more afraid of the BSP than the BJP”.
Sources said that while the Congress believes that aligning with the BSP would help the two consolidate the Dalit vote behind them, as well as ensure that the Muslim vote is not fragmented multiple ways, the SP – which saw a big jump in the 2022 Assembly polls. – does not want to part with too many seats, which would result in case the INDIA umbrella becomes bigger.
The SP has been tying up with little-known caste-based parties to widen its OBC base beyond the Yadavs, and sees itself as a leader of the INDIA bloc in the state. It has been consistently demanding that dominant regional parties lead the INDIA grouping in their respective states.
Sources add that broadly, the SP wants 65 out of the total 80 seats for itself, leaving 10 for the Congress and 5 for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). A big chunk of seats from Uttar Pradesh would put the SP in a commanding position come 2024 and, according to some party leaders, “make Akhilesh Yadav the future Prime Minister”.
But, if it enters the INDIA alliance, the BSP would not be happy playing second fiddle. An SP leader points out that in 2019, for example, the SP contested 37 seats while the BSP’s share was 38. “The BSP almost dominated the alliance because the Dalit population in Uttar Pradesh is more than the Yadavs. Also, the BSP contested mostly rural seats, where the BJP is weaker in comparison to urban seats. The SP was left with tough seats, like Lucknow, Kanpur, Jhansi, Allahabad and Varanasi,” the SP leader said.
While the BSP ended up winning 10 of the 38 seats it contested – a huge boost from 0 in 2014 – the SP got just 5 of the 37 constituencies it fought in (matching its 2014 number). The SP even lost its Yadav-dominated bastions such as Kannauj, Badaun and Firozabad in 2019.
While Dalits make up 20% of the state’s population, the Yadavs are about 10%. Getting the Muslim vote, which is around 19%, is crucial hence for any Opposition party that wants to defeat the BJP. The Muslims are known to vote for the SP, but both the BSP and Congress are in contention for the community’s support – and given the Dalit vs Yadav numbers, the BSP starts out with an advantage compared to the SP.
Another reason for the SP playing hardball is the 2022 Assembly poll results, where it won 111 seats compared to the BSP’s tally of 1. “Now, if the SP wins more seats than the BSP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it will establish the SP as the only challenger to the BJP in the 2027 assembly elections. Otherwise, the BSP will end up making the contest triangular and that will benefit the BJP, as happened in 2022,” an SP leader said, adding that polarisation of Muslims is likely to be stronger in 2027 because those would be the first Assembly polls after opening of the Ram temple.
Incidentally, while blaming the SP after the 2019 Lok Sabha poll debacle – alleging “internal sabotage” in the SP’s core vote base and saying it “drifted away” even in the SP strongholds – Mayawati had kept the window open. It was not a “permanent break” with the SP and she could work with Akhilesh again in the future if he “fulfills his political duties”, the BSP chief said at the time.
Asked about the SP resisting the BSP’s presence in the INDIA bloc, SP chief spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said, “I am not aware what party leaders said at the INDIA meeting. It is up to the top leaders. They will discuss it with the Congress when talks happen on seat-sharing. The SP is making preparations to contest all the seats. It has also decided candidates for several seats.”
Congress spokesperson Surendra Rajput refused to take any questions about the BSP, saying the top leadership would decide the matter. “INDIA alliance is working under collective leadership. The existing allies are most important for the Congress and any decision in Uttar Pradesh or any other state will not be taken without consulting our existing allies in respective states,” Rajput said.