HDFC Bank is poised to unveil its Q3 results, with a projected net profit growth of over 30% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in net interest income (NII) exceeding 25%. The net interest margin (NIM) is anticipated to recover marginally from the Q2 dip, reaching 3.4% on total assets and 3.6% on interest-earning assets. Despite expectations of single-digit growth in provisions for the quarter, the merged entity’s asset quality is forecasted to remain generally stable.
In the December quarter, the private lender witnessed an impressive provisional loan growth of 62.4%, with retail loans experiencing a remarkable 111% year-on-year surge. Commercial and rural banking loans also expanded by 31.5%, while other wholesale loans saw an 11% increase. Deposits, a crucial metric for banking institutions, exhibited a robust growth of 27.7%.
KRChoksey Shares and Securities predicts HDFC Bank’s net profit to soar by 32% year-on-year, reaching Rs 16,180.70 crore, compared to Rs 12,259 crore in the same period the previous year. The forecast for NII stands at Rs 29,371 crore, marking a 27.8% year-on-year growth from Rs 22,988 crore. The brokerage firm expects the cost-to-income ratio to be around 40.2%, slightly higher than the 39.6% reported in Q3FY23. Despite this, the asset quality is anticipated to remain stable during the quarter.
Motilal Oswal Securities foresees a 32.5% year-on-year rise in profit for HDFC Bank, reaching Rs 16,242 crore. The projection for NII is Rs 29,142 crore, reflecting a 26.8% year-on-year increase. The firm believes that margins are likely to witness a slight improvement from the Q2 lows, and gross non-performing assets are expected to be at 1.3%, a marginal increase from 1.2% year-on-year.
Axis Securities is optimistic about a 30.2% year-on-year increase in profit for HDFC Bank. The firm notes that margins likely hit bottom in Q2FY24 and are expected to improve sequentially. Provisions for the quarter are projected to rise by 6.7% year-on-year to Rs 2,994 crore. NII growth is anticipated at 27.8%, while non-interest income is expected to grow by 30.4% year-on-year.
According to YES Securities, sequential loan growth is expected to be in the ballpark of 4%, following an idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth is likely to mirror average loan growth due to the rise in the cost of deposits outpacing the yield on advances. Consequently, NIM is expected to remain stable sequentially. Fee income growth is forecasted to slightly exceed loan growth due to its linkage with payments activity. Operating expenses growth is expected to slightly lag loan growth. Slippages are predicted to be broadly stable on a sequential basis, and provisions are expected to remain stable due to idiosyncratic aspects.
Emkay Global anticipates a marginal recovery of 5 basis points quarter-on-quarter in margins for HDFC Bank. The bank is expected to report elevated non-performing assets (NPAs) on a merged basis, including agricultural slippages. Emkay Global attributes this to the largely resolved impact of the internal credit risk rating (ICRR) and MCLR revision, signaling a positive trajectory for the bank.
In summary, HDFC Bank’s Q3 results are eagerly awaited, with widespread anticipation of robust net profit growth, a recovery in net interest margin, and provisions maintaining stability. The bank’s diversified loan portfolio, particularly the stellar growth in retail loans, has positioned it favorably, despite potential challenges in the broader economic landscape. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the bank’s performance, emphasizing the importance of monitoring key indicators such as margins, asset quality, and provisions for a comprehensive evaluation of HDFC Bank’s financial health.