In a recent development in Bihar’s political scene, strategist Prashant Kishor made a noteworthy prediction concerning the longevity of the alliance between Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This statement was made shortly after a significant political shift where Nitish Kumar resigned as the Chief Minister of Bihar, leaving behind the Mahagathbandhan alliance to ally once again with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and form a new government in Bihar.
Kishor, speaking with journalists, expressed skepticism about the survival of the JD(U)-BJP alliance until the 2025 Bihar legislative assembly elections. He suggested that this political partnership might dissolve within a year or even less. He was confident in his analysis, asserting, “The current political arrangement, with Nitish Kumar leading the NDA with BJP support, is unlikely to hold till the next Bihar assembly elections. I am willing to document this assertion.”
He further anticipated major political shifts in Bihar within six months after the national parliamentary elections, highlighting his belief in the instability of the current political scenario in Bihar.
Nitish Kumar recently took oath as Bihar’s Chief Minister, marking a record ninth time in the position. The oath-taking ceremony, held at 5 pm on a Sunday, also saw the swearing-in of Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Sinha as Deputy Chief Ministers, along with the induction of six other cabinet ministers.
Prashant Kishor had previously commented on Bihar’s political stability in 2022 when Nitish Kumar exited the NDA. Speaking to ANI, Kishor had remarked, “Political alliances tend to change when they fail to meet political or administrative aspirations.”
He highlighted the fact that there have been multiple government formations in the state from 2013-14 onwards.
At that time, Kishor expressed his hopes for Kumar’s new political direction, saying, “With Nitish Kumar starting anew, I hope the aspirations of Bihar’s people will be fulfilled.”His remarks were made at a time characterized by numerous political shifts in Bihar. Kishor also alluded to his earlier forecast regarding the Mahagathbandhan alliance, which included the RJD and the Congress, not lasting until the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. He likened his previous prediction to his current expectations for the political scenario leading up to the 2025 elections, mentioning, “I had made a similar comment previously.”
Nitish Kumar’s departure from the Mahagathbandhan was attributed to dissatisfaction with the alliance’s functioning. He mentioned he had taken into account various suggestions, including those from his party colleagues, before deciding to resign. “The prevailing situation left me with no option but to step down,” he stated during a media briefing after his resignation was handed over to the Governor of Bihar, Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar.
The insights provided by Kishor highlight the fluid and often unpredictable nature of Bihar’s political landscape. The state has seen numerous shifts in political alliances, reflecting the challenges of achieving and maintaining political stability. With the approach of the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar, it will be interesting to observe whether Kishor’s forecasts come to fruition and how the political dynamics in the state will unfold.
Prashant Kishor’s predictions, given the historical context of Bihar’s political volatility, underscore a pattern of frequent shifts in alliances and power dynamics in the state. Bihar, known for its complex socio-political fabric, has witnessed numerous coalition governments and political realignments over the years. This unpredictability often reflects the diverse and evolving aspirations of the state’s electorate and the strategic maneuvers of its political leaders.
The strategic foresight of Kishor, who has been a key figure in Indian political strategy, brings an interesting perspective to the current political scenario in Bihar. His analysis suggests a deep understanding of the state’s political pulse and the factors that drive political decision-making. The emphasis on the fragile nature of the current JD(U)-BJP alliance points to underlying tensions and the challenges of coalition politics in a diverse state like Bihar.
As Bihar moves towards the 2025 legislative assembly elections, the political landscape is likely to be closely watched by analysts and the public alike. The state’s politics have significant implications not just for its own governance and development but also for the broader national political narrative in India. The unfolding of events in the coming months will be a test of Kishor’s predictions and may potentially reshape Bihar’s political future.