BJP’s Electoral Challenges: A Closer Look at 200 Seats Defying the Party in Last 3 LS Polls
As the political landscape gears up for the 18th Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself closely scrutinizing approximately 200 seats that have eluded the party in the past three general elections. This analysis reveals a pattern primarily in the southern and eastern regions, underscoring the BJP’s limited influence beyond the ‘cowbelt’ states.
ThePrint’s examination of the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, 2014, and 2019 reveals a persistent challenge for the BJP in securing victory in these particular constituencies. The majority of these seats are located in states where the party faces difficulties making significant inroads and relies heavily on allies, some of whom have distanced themselves from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), such as the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar.
Prof. Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst and psephologist, suggests that while the BJP will strive to expand its footprint in the South, the party remains confident that the outcome in these specific seats won’t significantly impact its overall chances in the upcoming 2024 elections. This sentiment is echoed by BJP leaders, emphasizing the party’s substantial performance in recent years.
The North-South electoral divide is evident, with Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh contributing 81 of the 200 seats resisting the BJP. Kerala, in particular, stands out as the only state in this trio where the BJP has never secured a Lok Sabha seat. Despite winning a seat in Tamil Nadu and two in Andhra Pradesh in 2014, the BJP faced a setback in 2019, failing to secure any seats in these states.
In the eastern regions, West Bengal and Odisha present challenges, with 24 and 13 seats respectively remaining beyond the BJP’s reach over the past 15 years. Despite gaining ground in these states recently, the BJP has been unable to secure victories in these specific constituencies.
Moving to the Hindi heartland, besides Bihar, only three seats in Uttar Pradesh and one in Madhya Pradesh have resisted the BJP wave. Notable strongholds like Chhindwara in Madhya Pradesh, Rae Bareily, and Mainpuri in Uttar Pradesh, remain out of bounds for the BJP.
The BJP contends that the seats in Maharashtra and Bihar are not insurmountable challenges, as the party’s allies garnered votes in the name of Prime Minister Modi. BJP leaders argue that the party’s stronghold in states like Maharashtra, where the Shiv Sena is an ally, and Bihar, where votes were attributed to PM Modi, diminishes the significance of not winning specific constituencies.
However, political analyst Sanjay Kumar emphasizes that the BJP needs to invest more effort in these resistant seats. He suggests that the party must energize its cadre and carefully select suitable candidates to enhance its chances in these constituencies where victory has been elusive.
According to BJP leaders, the party has been actively working on these 200 seats for the past two years. Union ministers have been assigned specific constituencies, and efforts are underway to take PM Modi’s schemes to the local populace. The BJP claims to be well-prepared for these challenges, even expressing confidence in opening accounts in states like Kerala.
Gopal Agarwal, a BJP spokesperson, reveals that the party has identified 160 seats where it either came second or lost by a small margin. In states like West Bengal, where the BJP narrowly lost, focused efforts have been ongoing for six months.
Congress data analytics head Praveen Chakravarty notes a distinct electoral pattern for the BJP, describing it as the most polarized party. The BJP tends to be either dominant in states where it is present or completely absent in others. Chakravarty predicts that in 2024, the BJP might face challenges in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Puducherry, potentially leading to the INDIA bloc gaining an advantage.
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) spokesperson Salem Dharanidharan suggests that there’s an inherent flaw in the democratic system, where a party could dominate in a few states and still form the government. Dharanidharan expresses confidence that the BJP will not secure a single victory in these 200 seats this year, especially with the INDIA bloc uniting against the party.
In conclusion, the BJP’s focus on the 200 seats that have defied the party in the last three Lok Sabha elections highlights the complexities and challenges the party faces beyond its traditional strongholds. As the political landscape evolves, the BJP’s strategies to address these challenges and expand its influence in diverse regions will play a crucial role in determining its electoral fortunes in 2024.